Actions Taken
- Family
- Begin opening up to known, careful social bubbles, but continue social distancing.
- Watch local cases daily for any resurgence.
- When we start seeing resurgence, tighten our bubbles again until the surge passes.
- Local
- Focusing projects to support economic recovery in Ashland. Current list:
- Incubator and fund to develop and attract startups in software, green technology, and light manufacturing.
- Encouraging and facilitating business relocation to Ashland – especially software and light manufacturing.
- Explore implementing the Main street pedestrian-friendly redesign proposal.
- Cooperative local delivery service for restaurants and retailers. Explore how to share costs and staff allowing local retailers to offer far better service than online retailers?
- Study current business mix, status, neighborhood centers ,and design potential future mix if we lose X% of current businesses.
- Community Chest/One Call for All – single donation foundation for all community organizations.
- Focusing projects to support economic recovery in Ashland. Current list:
- National
- Panelist on Janus Institute Economic Development podcast Monday 5/4.
- Publicizing the new book, Humane Leadership via email.
These actions were based on my
Orientation
- Public health locally is great. We have almost no cases in Jackson County.
- Nationally, we have states opening up where infection and death rates are still high.
- Economic disruption is likely to be long and damaging to Ashland’s current businesses.
- Federal programs are unlikely to save many local businesses.
- The state, county and city governments are unlikely to have the funds or bandwidth to create solutions.
- Long-term recovery will look different than what we had in February and it will fall to the community leaders to design and build what’ll be next.
Observations
Locally, we have had no new cases in days.
According to someone on staff last night, only one patient left at Asante Ashland, the dedicated Covid-19 facility. That patient is in recovery after 3 weeks on a ventilator.
Study suggests 3 scenarios, worst case is 18-24 months of ongoing, rolling lockdowns to balance infections and hospital capacity. Best case is a slow burn of cases without lockdowns until 6-70% of the population has had the virus.
Jackson County is well below R0 of 1 based on hospital admissions, but we don’t have enough data to get a clear number.
Social bubbles may be our reality for the coming year or two.
Generally, Americans need to refine their risk assessment skills.
First, the goal is to flatten the curve so hospitals can cope, not take it to zero so no one is exposed to the virus. In fact, we may need to find ways to expose segments of the society so we can reach 60-70% exposure and manage case loads by herd immunity rather than social distancing.
The media and government are rightfully focusing us on Covid-19 risk management, but we must remember that all of the other risks still exist. All death risks and likelihoods for Americans. Covid is worse than a normal flu, but far lower than heart disease and cancers. We need to get serious about diet and exercise… lock people out of their cars so they cannot use drive through fast food lanes?
Reinfection or reactivation? This is a key question that is still open. Are we ever temporarily immune to the virus or does it simply linger and reemerge in patients?
Community conversations – local businesses are hopeful, but cannot hold out very long, especially if tourists do not return soon.
City of Ashland actions to cut costs, etc. – enough change fast enough?
Greek tourism guidelines, might be useful for thinking about Ashland.
CBO – expects 14% unemployment in Q2 – and a $3.7 Trillion deficit for 2020
Reluctance to return to large venues – 60% of public venue arts and sports attendees will not return until there’s a vaccine
This process, OODA, is explained in this post on Leading in a Crisis.